TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Shnaider vs L. Samsonova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with D. Shnaider favoured at 1.68.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Shnaider | L. Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.5% | 65.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.5% | 65.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.4% | 44.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Shnaider | hard | 1841 | 98–62 | 160 |
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1750 | 30–32 | 62 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
D. Shnaider leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | Washington | hard | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 |
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 11, 2024 | Toronto | hard | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Lys | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══ D. Shnaider vs L. Samsonova — Wimbledon (grass) 1/32-finals ═══ MODELS ELO: Shnaider 34.6% | Samsonova 65.5% ML: Shnaider 59.1% | Samsonova 40.9% Model: Shnaider 34.6% (ELO-only) — confidence LOW Market: Shnaider 55.4% (1.68) | Samsonova 44.6% (2.09) Value: B flagged, edge +20.9% — BUT driven entirely by ELO; ML flatly disagrees. FORM — Shnaider (A) 6/30 W vs Lys (1550, Avg) 7-5 6-1 — GRIND set1, grass R1 6/22 L vs Tauson (1610) 4-6 4-6 6/15 L vs Bartunkova (1725) 2-6 7-6 3-6 6/04 L French Open SF vs Chwalinska (1831) — reached a Slam SF 6/03 W QF vs Sabalenka (2047, ELITE) 3-6 7-5 6-0 — marquee scalp 6/01 W R16 vs Keys (1895, ELITE) 6-3 3-6 6-0 Read: huge clay ceiling (beat Sabalenka + Keys, RG semifinalist). Grass tune-ups modest (1-2), but R1 win banked. FORM — Samsonova (B) 6/30 W vs Kudermetova (1679, Strong) 6-3 6-3 — clean DOM, grass R1 6/23 L vs Svitolina (1816) 6-3 3-6 2-6 — faded after winning set 1 6/21 W vs Siniakova (1774, Strong) 6-3 7-5 — solid 6/15 L vs Mertens (1744) | 6/08 L vs Dart (1594) Read: scattered, loss-heavy stretch; good R1 but no run of quality. FATIGUE A: 2 matches/14d, ~125 court-min. B: 3 matches/14d, ~208 court-min. Court-time diff ~83min (>60) → Samsonova the heavier-loaded side, slight disadvantage. Both 1 day rest. NARRATIVE Let-down: none (no recent Final for either). Venue: Wimbledon R1 wins for both; no prior-title signal. Title recency: none. VERDICT — PASS The lone "edge" is ELO on Samsonova, and ELO is stale: it under-credits Shnaider's just-earned RG SF run (Sabalenka + Keys scalps) and over-penalizes her grass tune-up losses. ML (59%), the market (55%), the superior recent-quality wins, and the fatigue split ALL lean Shnaider — the exact opposite side of the value flag. The qualitative read does not validate the ELO dissent, so the flagged +20.9% is not a real edge. No mutual agreement, no confirmed edge → stand aside.