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D. Shapovalov vs R. Pacheco Mendez — Prediction & Analysis

Los Cabos · ATP Los Cabos - 1/8-finals · July 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Shapovalov vs R. Pacheco Mendez (Los Cabos on 2026-07-29) — the market is efficient, with D. Shapovalov favoured at 1.33.

Surface hard Odds D. Shapovalov 1.33 · R. Pacheco Mendez 3.10

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: D. Shapovalov · R. Pacheco Mendez · head-to-head record · Los Cabos

Full analysis

D. Shapovalov (A, #37) vs R. Pacheco Mendez (B, #229) - Los Cabos, hard, 1/8-finals

MODELS
  ELO: A 78.6%  |  ML: A 56.77%  |  Market (Betfair 1.33): ~76.1% comm-adj (book implied ~70%)
  ELO ~ market agree; ML is the low outlier. No model gives A a >5% edge at the executable price.

RECENT FORM (most-recent 5)
  Shapovalov:
    07-29 Won vs Hijikata (1744 Strong) 2-6 6-3 6-2 - GRIND comeback win ON HARD, match-sharp at venue
    06-29 Lost vs Carreno-Busta (1707) 3-6 6-7 (grass)
    06-17 Lost vs De Minaur (1891 Elite) 6-4 6-1 (grass)
    06-15 Won vs Pinnington Jones (1690) 4-6 6-4 6.3-7.7 TB - GRIND (grass)
    06-08 Lost vs Cilic (1809) (grass)
    Shape STABLE: mixed grass slate, just banked a solid hard-court win over a Strong opp. Played-in.
  Pacheco Mendez:
    07-07 Lost vs Meligeni (1603) 4-6 3-6 (clay)
    07-03 Lost vs Meligeni (1605) 2-6 7-6 7-6 (clay)
    07-02 Won vs Goity (1293 Weak) (clay)
    06-30 Won vs Fernandez (1368 Weak) (clay)
    Shape FADING: lost last 2, only wins vs sub-1400 clay fields. #229, low-level.

PATH / TRANSITION
  Pacheco Mendez: last match 07-07 -> 22 days ago = RUST; all clay, now HARD = TRANSITION. Weaker/rustier side.
  Shapovalov: already played R32 yesterday at this venue = match-sharp on the surface.

FATIGUE
  Shapovalov WON a 3-set match yesterday (122 min) -> calibrated -4.5pp hangover haircut. Age 27 baseline.
  78.6% ELO -> ~74.1% after haircut. Pacheco well-rested but rust/transition offset any freshness edge.

NARRATIVE
  No Final/let-down signal. Shapovalov off ~1-month gap post-Wimbledon but has a live win in hand.

PRICING
  Betfair odds_a 1.33 -> effective 1+(0.33*0.95)=1.3135 -> implied 76.1%.
  Raw ELO edge = 78.6 - 76.1 = +2.5% (below 5% bar). After -4.5pp haircut: 74.1 - 76.1 = NEGATIVE.
  min_odds = 1.05/0.74 = 1.42 > executable 1.33 -> AUTOMATIC PASS on the favourite.
  Betfair odds_b 1.03 is a broken/stale quote (1.33+1.03 = 172% book) - dog unbettable regardless.
  alt_markets handicap/totals = null - no margin market to price.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL - favourite only ~2.5% raw edge (negative post-haircut) at 1.33; below 5% bar. Dog no takeable price.
  G2 consensus:   n/a (stake-tier only) - ELO/market vs ML split.
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (no bet; no margin market).

VERDICT: PASS. Favourite too short (no edge at exchange price, min 1.42 > 1.33); dog rusty, off-surface, no valid price.

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