TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Shapovalov vs P. Carreno-Busta (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with D. Shapovalov favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Shapovalov | P. Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.2% | 42.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.6% | 47.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1830 | 102–78 | 180 |
| P. Carreno-Busta | hard | 1742 | 81–51 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
P. Carreno-Busta leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 24, 2026 | Dubai | hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 2, 2022 | Paris | hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 9, 2022 | ATP ATP Cup | hard | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 28, 2019 | Chengdu | hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
═══ D. Shapovalov vs P. Carreno-Busta | Wimbledon GRASS | R1 (1/64) ═══
MODELS
ELO: 33% Shapovalov / 67% Carreno-Busta (strongly favors CB)
ML: 57% / 43% (favors Shapovalov)
Ensemble: 53% / 47% (model winner = Shapovalov, barely)
Market: 68% Shapovalov / 32% Carreno-Busta (devigged)
Odds: 1.40 Shapovalov / 3.00 Carreno-Busta
Value: CARRENO-BUSTA edge +15.5% (confidence: LOW)
HEAD-TO-HEAD — Carreno-Busta leads 3-1, but ALL FOUR on HARD, zero on grass
2026-02-24 Dubai (H) CB won 6-2 6-4 (recent, straight sets)
2022-11-02 Paris (H) CB won 6-7 6-2 4-6
2022-01-09 ATP Cup (H) Shapovalov won 6-4 6-3
2019-09-28 Chengdu (H) CB won 3-6 4-6
-> CB genuinely matches up well (consistency vs Shapo's erraticism), and won
the most recent meeting. But none of it is on grass.
RECENT FORM (last 90d)
Shapovalov: 3-7 overall, HAS GRASS REPS (1-2 on grass)
06-17 L vs De Minaur [1891] grass Queen's R16 | 06-15 W vs Pinnington J. [1690] grass
06-08 L vs Cilic [1809] grass Hertogenbosch. Lefty big serve = grass-friendly.
Carreno-Busta: 7-4 — ALL CLAY, ZERO grass this year
French Open R16 run (beat Lehecka 1847). Clay grinder; grass is his WORST surface.
FATIGUE
Shapovalov: 2 matches/14d | 12d rest | recent grass play
Carreno-Busta: 0 matches/14d | 29d rest | NO grass prep, rusty
NARRATIVE SIGNALS
LETDOWN: none VENUE: neither has Wimbledon history
KEY: Two offsetting forces — CB's proven matchup edge (3-1, all HARD) vs
Shapovalov's decisive grass surface fit. Grass blunts the rally-grinding
that wins CB the H2H.
QUALITATIVE VERDICT
The H2H shows CB is NOT a pure ELO mirage: he troubles Shapovalov stylistically
and beat him 4 months ago. That kills any idea of laying Shapo cheaply at 1.40
(he is 1-3 vs this man). But the entire H2H is on hard; on grass Shapovalov's
serve removes CB's grinding edge, and CB has no grass reps on his worst surface.
The two effects roughly cancel -> a fair-priced toss-up. 3.00 on CB (33% breakeven)
is about fair for a live dog, not clear value; grass keeps me from backing it.
DECISION
PASS (fair-priced toss-up; CB @ 3.00 is a defensible live dog, not a bet)
Reason: H2H makes CB a genuine threat (3-1, recent win) so no value laying Shapo,
but it is all hard-court; grass offsets it enough that 3.00 is only fair, not +EV.