TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Shapovalov vs D. Svrcina (Los Cabos on 2026-07-31) — the market is efficient, with D. Shapovalov favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Shapovalov | D. Svrcina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.8% | 40.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.3% | 32.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1830 | 102–78 | 180 |
| D. Svrcina | clay | 1643 | 100–83 | 183 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
D. Shapovalov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | Los Cabos | hard | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Walton | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All July 31, 2026 results & picks →
D. Shapovalov (A) vs D. Svrcina (B) - ATP Los Cabos QF, hard
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO A 0.598 | ML A 0.565 | blended A 0.594 -> A ~59pct, B ~41pct
Book: A 1.40 / B 2.88 (value_pick B, book edge +7.9pct)
Betfair (executable): A 1.44 / B 2.30
The book B quote (2.88) is stale - the exchange has B at 2.30. Edge test uses
the executable price.
RECENT FORM / SHAPE
A (Shapovalov, 27, rank 37): match-sharp, 2 deep at Los Cabos. Beat Hijikata
(1744 Strong) 2-6 6-3 6-2, then Pacheco Mendez (1585) 6-3 6-2 DOM. Prior grass/
clay window poor (L vs Carreno-Busta, De Minaur 6-4 6-1) but SHARPENING on hard
at this event. Credible favourite, ELO~rank.
B (Svrcina, 23, rank 116): also 2 deep - beat Walton (1756) 7-6 6-7 6-3 GRIND,
then Darderi via retirement (3-0). TRANSITION off clay (Bastad/Braunschweig)
onto hard, adjusted after 2 wins. Broader form weak (rank 116, ELO~rank).
FATIGUE
Both played today (07-30), back_to_back 1. A: 3-setter 07-29 + straights today
(~198min). B: 3-setter 07-29 + retirement today (~180min, lighter). Roughly equal,
no extreme spot; ages 27/23 fine. Not an edge either way.
NARRATIVE
No first-Final let-down in window. B surface transition off clay noted (adjusted).
No motivation signal in data.
PRICING (executable, 5pct commission)
B: model 0.406 vs Betfair-eff implied 0.447 -> edge -4.1pct (min odds 2.59, at 2.30)
A: model 0.594 vs Betfair-eff implied 0.705 -> edge -11.1pct
B's +4.7pct edge exists ONLY vs the stale book 2.88; the exchange contradicts it,
which KILLS the bet per pricing discipline. Neither side clears the 5pct bar.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL - at executable Betfair prices both sides carry negative edge;
the only positive number came from a stale book quote the exchange has moved past.
G2 consensus: n/a (stake tier only) - all three models cluster A ~59pct, no split.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ML, no margin bet).
VERDICT: PASS. Models lean B relative to the market, but the exchange has already
priced that lean out (B 2.30, not 2.88). No executable value on either side.
AH: not quoted.