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D. Salkova vs A. Ibragimova — Prediction & Analysis

Iasi · WTA Iasi - 1/16-finals · July 14, 2026 · 12:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Salkova vs A. Ibragimova (Iasi on 2026-07-14) — the market is efficient, with D. Salkova favoured at 1.69.

Surface clay Odds D. Salkova 1.69 · A. Ibragimova 2.26

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: D. Salkova · A. Ibragimova · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ D. Salkova vs A. Ibragimova — WTA Iasi (clay, 1/16-finals) ═══

MODELS & MARKET
  Market: A 1.69 (implied 57.2%) | B 2.26 (implied 44.2% raw)
  ELO: A 54.6% | ML: A 64.1% | Model: A 54.6%
  Value flag: B, edge 2.6% — models SPLIT (ELO mildly pro-B, ML strongly pro-A)

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Salkova (6W-10L in window, 3-match losing streak):
    07-06 Contrexeville R32  L vs Werner (1537 Avg) 6-1 7-5
    06-23 Wimbledon QF       L vs Shymanovich (1482 Weak) 6-7 6-3 4-6 GRIND
    06-12 Modena QF          L vs Kawa (1707 Strong) 1-6 1-6
    06-10 Modena R16         W vs Trevisan (1561 Avg) 6-1 7-6 GRIND
    06-09 Modena R32         W vs Tubello (1583 Avg) 6-1 3-6 6-4 GRIND
    No DOM wins vs Strong/Elite recently; losses to Weak/Avg opponents. Poor form.
  Ibragimova (12W-8L in window):
    07-13 Iasi Final (quali) W vs Lepchenko (1598 Avg) 6-3 6-4 DOM
    07-12 Iasi SF (quali)    W vs Kozyreva (1276 Weak) 6-2 6-0 DOM
    06-20 W75 Blois Final    L vs Curmi (1623 Avg)
    06-19 W75 Blois SF       W vs Nguyen Tan (1496 Weak) 7-5 6-2
    06-18 W75 Blois QF       W vs Hesse (1394 Weak) 6-2 6-0 DOM
    Sharp, but wins overwhelmingly vs Weak/Avg opposition at ITF level.

FATIGUE
  Salkova: 1 match/14d, 86 min court time, 8 days rest — fresh but cold.
  Ibragimova: 2 matches/7d, 149 min, back-to-back (played yesterday), 3rd straight day.
  Court-time diff ~63 min → mild fatigue disadvantage Ibragimova, offset by match sharpness.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: mechanical flag on B (won "Final" 1d ago) — but it is the Iasi QUALIFYING final
  at this same venue → reads as momentum, not emotional letdown.
  Venue: Ibragimova 2-0 at Iasi this week (both DOM); Salkova 0 matches here.
  Title recency: B — Iasi quali 1d ago (clay).

VERDICT: PASS
  ELO edge on B is only 2.6% and ML contradicts hard (64% A) — no model consensus
  against the market. Qualitative read mildly favors B (Salkova 3-loss skid incl. losses
  to sub-1550 opponents; Ibragimova venue-sharp) but is partly cancelled by B's
  back-to-back schedule and Weak-opponent-heavy win profile. Thin, contested edge = no bet.
  alt_markets null → no handicap/total alternative.

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