TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Parry vs P. Stearns (Guadalajara on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with D. Parry favoured at 1.81.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Parry | P. Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.5% | 49.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.6% | 58.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.2% | 50.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.1% | 48.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Parry | hard | 1761 | 68–74 | 142 |
| P. Stearns | hard | 1736 | 99–76 | 175 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 2, 2026.
| L | S. Cirstea | 0 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 | Aug. 29, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | C. Tauson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →