TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Parry vs K. Day (Toronto on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with K. Day favoured at 1.65.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Parry | K. Day |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.3% | 58.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.2% | 66.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.8% | 59.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.5% | 53.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
K. Day leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 3, 2026 | Toronto | hard | K. Day | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Day | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | I. Begu | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →
D. Parry (A, rank 108, 23) vs K. Day (B, rank 256, 26) — WTA Toronto 1/64, hard.
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO 41.3% | ML 41.0% | Sim 40.8% (Parry). All three converge on Day ~59%.
Betfair ML: Parry 2.28 (devig 42%), Day 1.65 (devig 58%). Market = models.
Parry edge vs comm-adj Betfair: -4.4% (min 2.58). Day edge: -2.6% (min 1.77). Both negative.
RECENT FORM / SHAPE (last 5)
Parry: 07-21 LOST 4-6 0-6 to Hontama (1482, clay) — blowout, FADING. Prior: Wimb R2 loss,
Bad Homburg final loss. Strong clay peak (Paris final, beat Keys/Raducanu/Anisimova) but
that was May and on CLAY. Now off the surface, FADING into hard.
Day: 08-01 WON 3-set 197min (Toronto), 07-28 3-set loss (Vancouver hard), match-sharp on
hard court. Ranked 256 but playing tour-level hard events actively.
PATH: Parry rusty — last match 07-21 (12 days off) AND on clay -> TRANSITION to hard (rust +
wider margin variance, level depressed). Day is match-sharp on hard. Sharpness favours Day.
FATIGUE (Step 2)
Day: 197min 3-set WIN yesterday (08-01) = extreme spot -> calibrated 3-set-hangover -4.5pp
(age 26, baseline, no modulation). Applied once. Parry rested (12d off) but rust cuts both
ways and she was blown out in her last match.
Fatigue-adjusted Day 54.7% -> Parry 45.3%. Parry edge vs Betfair = +0.15% only. Still < 5%.
NARRATIVE
No let-down spot for Parry that helps her here (she LOST her recent finals). Surface
TRANSITION on Parry = RISK, not support. Day's fatigue is offset by her hard-court sharpness
and Parry's rust/transition.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric edge before fatigue (models = market on Day ~59%). The
only positive Parry number (+0.15%) appears solely from the fatigue haircut, and it is
still below the 5% bar. Edge is manufactured, not real.
G2 consensus: stake-tier only (3 models with Day, aligned with market) — n/a, no bet.
G3 fatal-risk: ML market, does not block — n/a, no bet.
MARKET CHOICE
alt_markets: handicap/totals null, only betfair_ml present.
AH: not quoted.
ML the only market. No side clears its min-odds bar; both edges negative at the exchange.
VERDICT: PASS. Full model+market consensus on Day (~59%). Parry's lone tailwind (Day's
3-set-hangover) is offset by Parry's own 12-day rust + clay->hard transition + a FADING blowout
loss, and even granting the full -4.5pp haircut leaves Parry short of the 5% edge bar (G1 fail).
No exchange value on either side. Pass.