TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Michalski vs C. Hemery (Gstaad on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with D. Michalski favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Michalski | C. Hemery |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.7% | 58.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
21.9% | 78.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.7% | 58.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.4% | 48.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Michalski | clay | 1520 | 225–120 | 345 |
| C. Hemery | clay | 1595 | 142–89 | 231 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
C. Hemery leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Gstaad | clay | C. Hemery | 2 - 1 |
| L | O. Prihodko | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Zielinski | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | W. Marek | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | P. Michocki | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cina | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | F. Cina | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Michalski | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Moeller | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | E. Coulibaly | 0 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used