TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Merida Aguilar (moneyline) at 2.81 in D. Merida Aguilar vs L. Tien (Montreal on 2026-08-11). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Merida Aguilar | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.9% | 61.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.6% | 66.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Merida Aguilar | hard | 1812 | 66–46 | 112 |
| L. Tien | hard | 1888 | 167–64 | 231 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 4, 2026.
L. Tien leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 11, 2026 | Montreal | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | D. Vallejo | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 0 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
All Aug. 11, 2026 results & picks →