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D. Merida Aguilar vs K. Jacquet — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · ATP Estoril - 1/16-finals · July 21, 2026 · 14:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Merida Aguilar vs K. Jacquet (Estoril on 2026-07-21) — the market is efficient, with D. Merida Aguilar favoured at 1.44.

Surface clay Odds D. Merida Aguilar 1.44 · K. Jacquet 2.80

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: D. Merida Aguilar · K. Jacquet · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ D. Merida Aguilar vs K. Jacquet — Estoril 1/16-finals (clay) ═══

MODELS
  Book:  A 1.44 (impl 66.0%) | B 2.80 (impl 35.7%)
  ELO:   A 76.2%  → likes A vs market (+10.1)
  ML:    A 61.3%  → BELOW market (-4.7)
  Models split — ELO/ML disagree on direction vs market.
  Exchange: no Betfair prices (alt_markets null) → book-priced only, 8% bar.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Merida Aguilar (Umag CHAMPION, 5-0 last week):
    07-18 Umag F     W vs Dzumhur (1723, Strong)      6-2 5-7 6-2
    07-17 Umag SF    W vs Burruchaga (1811, Strong)   DOM
    07-16 Umag QF    W vs Droguet (1809, Strong)      6-1 6-3 DOM
    07-15 Umag R16   W vs Etcheverry (1801, Strong)   7-5 6-4
    07-14 Umag R32   W vs Sesko (1440, Weak)          DOM
    → Elite form: 4 straight wins vs Strong, 3 DOM. Live level clearly high.
  Jacquet (Estoril finalist, lost F 2d ago):
    07-19 Estoril F  L vs Daniel (1724, Strong)       4-6 6-3 3-6
    07-18 Estoril SF W vs Da Rosa Castro (1500, Avg)  6-1 6-2 DOM
    07-13 Umag R32   L vs Trungelliti (1736, Strong)  2-6 3-6
    07-02 Wimb R32   L vs Bublik (1818, Strong)       3 sets, TB GRIND
    06-30 Wimb R64   W vs Gaubas (1630, Avg)          6-3 6-4 7-6 GRIND
    → GRIND profile: wins mostly vs Avg/Weak, heavy tiebreak diet; 0-3 recent vs Strong ex-Dimitrov.

FATIGUE (precomputed)
  A: 5 matches/7d, 15 sets, 4 back-to-backs, 553 court min, last 07-18
  B: 3 matches/7d,  9 sets, 1 back-to-back, 333 court min, last 07-19
  → Diff 220 min, +2 matches: A heavily disadvantaged. Plus Umag→Estoril travel.

NARRATIVE
  A: Won Umag FINAL 3d ago → POSSIBLE LETDOWN (title + max load + travel).
  B: Lost Estoril Final 2d ago → NOTE. Venue momentum: Estoril 2-1.

VERDICT — PASS
  ELO's +10 edge on A is exactly the signal the qualitative read kills:
  peak-week champion, 5 matches in 5 days, immediate turnaround at a new venue.
  ML (61.3%) already discounts A below market. Betting A fails validation.
  Dog side B? My true B prob ~40-42% vs impl 35.7% → ~5-6% edge, but no exchange
  price exists and book-priced ML needs ≥8% (min odds 2.80 gives none to spare);
  B is also 0-for-recent vs Strong and coming off his own final. Thin both ways
  in a no-liquidity segment → PASS.

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