TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Kasatkina vs N. Osaka (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.18.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Kasatkina | N. Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.3% | 66.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.6% | 79.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.0% | 65.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.3% | 66.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
22.3% | 77.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 30, 2025 | US Open | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 |
| May 11, 2024 | WTA Rome | clay | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
═══ D. Kasatkina (A) vs N. Osaka (B) — Wimbledon 1/16, grass ═══
MODELS
ELO A 0.333 | ML A 0.206 | serve/ret A 0.350 | blend A 0.333
Market A 4.12 (imp 0.223) | B 1.18 (imp 0.777)
Value flag: A, edge +0.11 (ELO only)
ML + market AGREE on Osaka ~0.78–0.79; only ELO dissents.
FORM — grass, last 90d
Kasatkina (A): POOR. Grinding past Weak fields at SW19 —
W vs Tjen(1537) 3set GRIND, W vs Xu(1500) 3set GRIND.
Pre-Wimbledon grass: L Eastbourne(Kessler 1619), L Nottingham SF(Blinkova),
L Hertogenbosch(Montgomery 1775). Out of sorts on the surface.
Osaka (B): PEAK. Bad Homburg finalist beating a Strong-heavy draw
DOM: Alexandrova(1790) 6-2 6-2, Mertens(1782) 6-3 6-3, Xin Wang(1847) 6-3 6-3.
SW19: DOM vs Gasanova(1683) 6-3 6-2, W vs Jacquemot 6-1 7-5.
Live form lopsided in B's favour; DOM vs Strong = real edge.
FATIGUE (14d)
A: 3 matches, ~8 sets, court ~247min, rested since 07-01.
B: 7 matches, ~21 sets, court ~361min, b2b run — heavier load (+114min).
Edge: slight fatigue disadvantage to Osaka on volume, BUT her wins were
quick blowouts (~51min avg) and she showed zero drop-off in 2 SW19 DOM wins.
NARRATIVE
Osaka RETIRED from Bad Homburg final vs Muchova 6d ago (down 6-1 0-1) —
a health flag, but she returned to win 2 SW19 matches dominantly → looks resolved.
No live let-down window (lost final was 6d out, outside 0-3d).
Kasatkina: no title recency; grass venue history unremarkable.
VERDICT — PASS
The lone dissent is ELO's 0.333 on Kasatkina (11% "value"), but the
qualitative read KILLS it: form is emphatically Osaka's way, and ML+market
concur at ~0.78. No reason to back a struggling Kasatkina at 4.12; Osaka at
1.18 offers no value. Full ML+market consensus → efficient price, no edge.
Predicted winner: N. Osaka.