TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Kasatkina vs E. Rybakina (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Kasatkina | E. Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
9.6% | 90.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.7% | 74.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
14.3% | 85.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
9.6% | 90.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.5% | 82.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2149 | 174–69 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
E. Rybakina leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 11, 2024 | WTA Abu Dhabi | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 12, 2023 | WTA Montreal | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 2, 2022 | San Jose | hard | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 10, 2021 | Abu Dhabi | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used