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D. Kasatkina vs A. Smith — Prediction & Analysis

Washington · · July 26, 2026 · 17:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Kasatkina vs A. Smith (Washington on 2026-07-26) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.04.

Surface hard Odds D. Kasatkina 1.04 · A. Smith 8.50

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: D. Kasatkina · A. Smith · head-to-head record

Full analysis

D. Kasatkina vs A. Smith — Washington (hard), Final-stage match

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO: 90.5% A | ML: 86.6% A | Book: 1.04/8.50 (impl 89.1% A) | Betfair: 1.09/11.0
  Executable (comm-adj): A impl ~92.1%, B impl ~9.5%
  Edge A: 90.5% − 92.1% = −1.6% (negative at exchange price)
  Edge B: ML 13.4% − 9.5% = +3.8% (below 5% bar); ELO has B at 9.5% = exactly market
  ELO/ranking sanity: Kasatkina rank 66, clear class leader — ELO credible. Smith rank 414
  with recent wins farmed vs Weak/Avg ITF-level fields — her side has no trustworthy signal.

RECENT FORM (most recent 5 shown)
  Kasatkina (29): W Bolkvadze (Avg 1562) 6-7 6-4 6-0 GRIND — yesterday, this event
    L Osaka (Strong) Wimbledon; W Tjen (Avg) GRIND-TB; W Xu 3 sets; L Kessler (Avg)
    Mixed summer but winning at this event; strongest opponent quality of the two by far.
  Smith (26): W L. Ma (Avg 1573) 4-6 6-7 GRIND — yesterday, this event
    L Collins Newport; W Newport Final vs Jara (Weak 1500) — TITLE: Newport 21d ago (grass)
    L Ryser (Weak) Figueira; W Liu (1000). Nearly all opposition Weak/Avg ITF level.

FATIGUE
  A: 1 match/7d, 3 sets, 110 min, last 07-25 | B: 1 match/7d, 3 sets, 87 min, last 07-25
  Diff 23 min, equal match counts → Roughly equal. No age modulation needed (29/26, no penalty applied).

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: Smith won Newport Final 21d ago → None (outside window). Kasatkina none.
  Venue: both 1-0 at Washington this week. Surface transition: none — both already on hard here.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no side clears 5% vs commission-adjusted Betfair (A −1.6%, B +3.8%)
  G2 consensus:   FAIL — ELO agrees with market on both sides; only ML mildly leans B, a lone split
  G3 fatal-risk:  FAIL — dog thesis rests on wins farmed vs Weak/ITF fields; class gap (66 vs 414) negates it

VERDICT: PASS. Market is efficient here — exchange prices Kasatkina slightly above the models,
and the only nominal dog edge (ML +3.8%) is sub-bar with zero qualitative support. No alt
markets priced. Predicted winner: D. Kasatkina.

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