D. Chan vs T. A. Tirante — Prediction & Analysis

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Chan vs T. A. Tirante (Montreal on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with T. A. Tirante favoured at 1.20.

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.

Recent form

All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

D. Chan (A, rank 650, age 21) vs T. A. Tirante (B, rank 69, age 25) — ATP Montreal R1 (1/64), hard.

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO_a 38.1% | ML_a 29.0% | model_a 30.4% | Pinnacle no-vig_a 28.0%
  Book odds_a 4.5 (22.2%) but Betfair_ml odds_a 3.55; effective 1+(3.55-1)*0.95=3.42 -> implied 29.2%.
  2 of 3 models (ML, model) sit right on the sharp exchange price; only ELO (38%) disagrees.
  value_edge 0.094 was computed vs the STALE book 4.5 — at executable Betfair 3.55 it evaporates.

ELO/RANK SANITY
  Chan ELO implies 38% while ranked 650 -> classic "high ELO, modest rank": rating farmed on
  Challenger/M25 hard fields. Discount the lone ELO edge; ML/model at market are the credible read.
  The exchange already sharpened Chan up from book 4.5 to 3.55 — the form value is priced in.

RECENT FORM (last 5)
  Chan: 08-01 Montreal-F Won vs Gaston(1739) 3set GRIND (title); 07-28 Vancouver Lost vs Sweeny(1602);
        07-21 Winnipeg Won vs McCabe(1579) 3set; 07-20 Winnipeg-F Won vs Bouchelaghem(1481) 3set (title);
        07-19 Winnipeg-SF Won vs Ayeni(1469). Hot streak, hard-court, match-sharp but ALL grinds/low-elo fields.
  Tirante: 07-17 Bastad-QF Lost vs Tabilo(clay); 07-16 Bastad Won vs Basilashvili(1678,clay);
        07-14 Bastad Won vs Ofner(1724,clay); 06-29 Wimbledon Lost vs Marozsan(grass); 06-24 Eastbourne Lost.
        Genuine tour-level results but ALL on clay/grass. No recent hard-court sample.

SHAPE / PATH
  Chan SHARPENING on hard (Challenger title yesterday) and 4 matches deep at Montuple venue = match-sharp.
  Tirante: 16d since last match (rust risk) + clay->hard TRANSITION (level depressed, looser margins).
  Transition on the OPPONENT supports a Chan dog ML directionally — but does not by itself create numeric edge.

FATIGUE (Step 2)
  Chan: matches_7d 2, matches_14d 5, total_sets 15, back_to_back 2, 617 court-min, 3-set WIN yesterday (08-01).
  Calibrated 3-set-hangover = -4.5pp on Chan; age 21 (<=22) softens one tier -> ~-2pp. Still a DISADVANTAGE
  on the side we'd back. Extreme cumulative load. This CUTS the Chan bull case, does not support it.
  Tirante: fully rested (0 matches 14d).

NARRATIVE
  Chan let-down risk: won a Final yesterday (0-1d) -> LETDOWN spot after Challenger title = dog-negative for Chan.
  No injury notes (player_notes null).

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — pre-fatigue edge rests on the LONE ELO (38% vs 29.2% exec); with the farmed-ELO
     discount and 2 models at market, no >=5% exchange edge exists from model-vs-market disagreement.
  G2 consensus:   stake-tier — lone-model split, contaminated (farmed ELO) -> would cap 0.5-1.0u anyway.
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (ML market).

VERDICT
  Sharp exchange already priced Chan's form (book 4.5 -> Betfair 3.55, matching ML/model 29-30%). The only
  disagreement is a farmed-ELO outlier; the qualitative opponent-transition/rust edge is offset by Chan's
  extreme load + let-down-after-title. No clean 5% exchange edge. PASS.