C. Wong vs J. Brooksby — Prediction & Analysis

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Wong vs J. Brooksby (Los Cabos on 2026-07-31) — the market is efficient, with J. Brooksby favoured at 1.56.

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.

Head to head

Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.

Recent form

All July 31, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

C. Wong (A, #150, age 22) vs J. Brooksby (B, #63, age 25) - Los Cabos, hard, QF

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO Wong 46.3% | ML Wong 38.8% | model 46.3%
  Book Wong 2.44 (41%) | Betfair Wong 2.70 (37.0%) / Brooksby 1.54 (64.9%)
  Models SPLIT hard: ELO (46.3%) is the lone dissenter; ML (38.8%) and the
  exchange (37%) - the two sharpest estimates - agree. Book "value" (edge 7.3%
  vs 41%) is stale: Betfair drifted Wong OUT to 2.70, contradicting the book, so
  the executable price kills the flagged value (Pricing Discipline #1).

RECENT FORM (last 5)
  Wong: 07-30 W v Lehecka(1912 Elite) 3-set grind - big scalp; 07-28 DOM v
    Blanch(1561); 07-23 L v Wolf(1640); 07-21 W v Johnson(1591); 07-18 L v
    Johnson(1586) 3-set TB. Shape SHARPENING at this event (elite scalp today),
    pre-event hard form grindy/mixed.
  Brooksby: 07-30 W v Winter(1512) straight; 07-29 DOM v Moutet(1764 Strong)
    6-4 6-4 - strong scalp; then 3.5wk layoff after Wimbledon (07-03 L v Sinner).
    Shape STABLE-to-SHARPENING, no rust showing (clean wins).

PATH & SHARPNESS
  Both match-sharp, 2 wins deep at Los Cabos, now QF. Neither rusty.

FATIGUE (extreme-spot + calibrated haircut)
  Wong: won a hard 3-SET match TODAY (v Lehecka) into QF tomorrow -> calibrated
    3-set-hangover haircut -4.5pp, softened for age 22 (recovers fast) to ~-3pp.
    matches_14d 6, 598 court-min, 18 sets - heavy load (context only).
  Brooksby: won a 2-set match today (roughly neutral), only 175 court-min / 2
    matches / 6 sets - materially fresher. Fatigue works AGAINST Wong, so it does
    NOT support the ELO-backed Wong bet - it undermines it.

NARRATIVE
  No first-Final letdown in window. No surface transition (both on hard).
  ELO/ranking: Wong ELO-competitive despite #150 vs #63 - partly legit (beat
  Lehecka 1912 today) but his Slam-labelled runs are low-elo fields; lean toward
  trusting ML/exchange over the lone ELO read.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: PASS - a numeric edge exists pre-adjustment (ELO 46.3% vs exch
    breakeven 38.2% = +8pp), but it is ELO-only.
  G2 consensus:   lone-model (ELO) with ML+exchange against -> stake capped
    0.5-1.0u; does not block.
  G3 fatal-risk:  ML bet, does not block; noted the sharp-price contradiction.

VERDICT - PASS
  The only edge is a lone ELO read (+8pp) that both the ML model and the sharper
  exchange price contradict at ~37-38%, and the book "value" evaporates at the
  executable Betfair price (2.70). The qualitative read does NOT confirm the ELO
  side: Wong carries a fresh 3-set hangover into the QF while Brooksby is fresher
  and won easily. Manufactured edge (lone model + contradicting sharp price +
  fatigue against the pick). No value on Brooksby either - every model sits under
  his 64.9% exchange price. Totals: model under ~51.5% at 21.5 vs 2.0 breakeven
  51.3% - sub-5% edge. Handicap: no sim cover, no independent margin read. PASS.
  AH: not staking a dog ML >=3.0 - n/a.