TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Wong vs A. Gea (Los Cabos on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with A. Gea favoured at 1.69.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Wong | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.9% | 65.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.8% | 56.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
A. Gea leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Los Cabos | hard | A. Gea | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Gea | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Lehecka | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Dar. Blanch | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Wolf | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: C. Wong (A) vs A. Gea (B) — Los Cabos, hard, Semi-final (both won QF 07-31)
MODELS vs MARKET (player A = Wong):
ELO A 34.9% | ML A 41.2% | sim A 42.0% | market(betfair) A 44.6%
=> B side: ELO 65.1% | ML 58.8% | sim 58.0% | betfair B implied 56.8%
ML and sim both within ~1-2% of the market on B (below the 5% bar). Only ELO
diverges (~8% on B) — a single model.
ELO/RANK sanity: Gea ranked 241 yet ELO-favourite; Wong ranked 150 yet ELO-dog.
ELO favours the LOWER-ranked player — suspect/unreliable, discount the lone ELO edge.
RECENT FORM (last 5 each, most-recent first):
Wong(A): 07-31 W Brooksby(1747) 6-1 7-5; 07-30 W Lehecka(1912 ELITE) 3set;
07-28 W Blanch(1561) 6-3 6-4; 07-23 L Wolf(1640); 07-21 W Johnson(1591).
SHARPENING, match-sharp deep run; QF today a clean 2-set win (fresher).
Gea(B): 07-31 W Cerundolo(1856) 3set; 07-30 W Zheng(1796) 3set;
07-29 W Kwon(1785) 3set; 07-19 L Vukic(Final); 07-18 W Cassone.
Also SHARPENING vs strong field, but 3 STRAIGHT 3-setters, heavy load.
FATIGUE: Both played today. Gea B: back_to_back=4, 809 court-min/14d, 3 consecutive
3-set matches incl. a 3-set win today -> if SF tomorrow, 3-set-hangover haircut
applies to Gea (softened: Gea age 21, recovers fast). Wong A: 571 min, QF today
2 sets, fresher. Net fatigue tilts toward Wong (the underdog) — but that is a
who-wins signal, not a numeric model edge.
ALT MARKETS (all fail the bar):
A +1.5 @2.00: sim covers 52.5% -> edge +1.2% (below 5%).
B -1.5 @1.92: sim covers 47.5% -> edge -5.8%.
Over 22.5 @1.93: sim 49.6% -> edge -3.5%. Under 22.5 @2.00: sim 50.4% -> edge -0.8%.
AH: A +1.5 @ 2.00 (passed).
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric model-vs-market edge >=5% on either side before
adjustments. B edge on ML/sim is ~1-2%; the only >=5% figure is the lone ELO on B,
and the qualitative read (Gea fatigue) contradicts that side rather than confirming.
G2 consensus: n/a (stake tier only) — ML+sim+market consensus on B ~57-58% = efficient.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (no bet).
VERDICT: PASS. ML and sim agree with the exchange on Gea ~57-58% (efficient). The only
divergence is a lone, suspect ELO (favours the lower-ranked player) pointing at the
heavily-fatigued side — so the qualitative read opposes, not confirms, the only edge.
No alt market clears its bar. Nothing to bet.