TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Werner vs M. Rapolu (Caldas da Rainha on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with M. Rapolu favoured at 1.41.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Werner | M. Rapolu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.4% | 58.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.5% | 48.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 5, 2026.
| L | H. Klugman | 1 - 2 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | O. Dodin | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | E. Micic | 2 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | V. Podrez | 1 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Johnson | 0 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kulambayeva | 0 - 2 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| L | K. Swan | 1 - 2 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | P. Cembranos | 2 - 0 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | L. Fruhvirtova | 1 - 2 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →