TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 22.5 games at 1.80 in C. Ugo Carabelli vs I. Simakin (Shanghai on 2026-10-08). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Ugo Carabelli | I. Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.3% | 54.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
70.9% | 29.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.8% | 47.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.9% | 71.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ugo Carabelli | hard | 1580 | 22–40 | 62 |
| I. Simakin | hard | 1710 | 182–86 | 268 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 10, 2026.
C. Ugo Carabelli leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 8, 2026 | Shanghai | hard | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | I. Marcondes | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | N. Sanchez Izquierdo | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 2 - 0 | Oct. 18, 2026 |
| W | L. Pavlovic | 1 - 2 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| W | R. Te | 0 - 2 | Oct. 6, 2026 |
All Oct. 8, 2026 results & picks →