TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Smith vs A. Guillen Meza (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with C. Smith favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Smith | A. Guillen Meza |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
27.0% | 73.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.4% | 71.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.3% | 68.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.9% | 71.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.8% | 46.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Smith | hard | 1644 | 63–38 | 101 |
| A. Guillen Meza | clay | 1525 | 164–123 | 287 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
C. Smith leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | C. Smith | 2 - 0 |
| L | . R. Pascual F. | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | J. Wolf | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Bu | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | H. Matsuoka | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Matusevich | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | B. Gadamauri | 0 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | F. Bondioli | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | F. Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used