TennisEdge's AI bot is backing C. Norrie (moneyline) at 2.40 in C. Norrie vs D. Shapovalov (Shanghai on 2026-10-06). Result: VOID.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Norrie | D. Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.2% | 48.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.8% | 66.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.0% | 55.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.3% | 63.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Norrie | hard | 1823 | 131–97 | 228 |
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1839 | 111–85 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 11, 2026.
C. Norrie leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Los Cabos | hard | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 1, 2021 | San Diego | hard | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 |
| June 19, 2021 | London | grass | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 0 - 2 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 1 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Khachanov | 1 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 0 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Oct. 3, 2026 |
All Oct. 6, 2026 results & picks →