TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Norrie vs B. Tomic (Los Cabos on 2026-07-31) — the market is efficient, with C. Norrie favoured at 1.32.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Norrie | B. Tomic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
77.6% | 22.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.8% | 37.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.4% | 62.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.6% | 22.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.7% | 28.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
C. Norrie leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | Los Cabos | hard | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Hernandez | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Boyer | Walk Over | July 27, 2026 |
| W | M. Tobon | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
All July 31, 2026 results & picks →
═══ C. Norrie (A) vs B. Tomic (B) — ATP Los Cabos QF, hard, 2026-07-31 ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO: Norrie 77.6% ML: Norrie 62.8% model: 77.6%
Book: 1.32 / 3.35 Betfair ML: 1.34 / 3.30
Norrie effective odds 1.323 → break-even 75.6%
Tomic effective odds 3.185 → break-even 31.4%
Models SPLIT hard (15pp): ELO/market ~76%, ML says Norrie only 62.8% (i.e. Tomic live-value).
RECENT FORM (last 5 shown)
Norrie (rank 28, ELO-fav):
07-30 W Duckworth (1679) 6-4 6-4 — solid over Strong
07-28 W Kovacevic (1687) 6-4 6-1 — DOM over Strong
07-18 UTS exo results (non-standard format, ignore)
06-29 L Zheng (1678) grass 5-set — narrow
Shape: SHARPENING on hard — two clean wins over ~1680 opponents entering event well.
Tomic (rank 194):
07-30 W Khachanov (1803) 6-2 6-4 — genuine DOM over Elite, real signal
07-28 W Hernandez (1424) 6-1 6-0 — DOM weak
07-19 W Lincoln (challenger) Final over Lajal (1705) — title
Shape: SHARPENING but built largely on challenger-level fields; Khachanov win is the one legit top-tier scalp.
PATH & SHARPNESS
Both match-sharp (deep in Los Cabos). Tomic is a returning-form journeyman riding a huge match streak.
FATIGUE (Step 2)
Norrie: 2 matches/7d, b2b 1, 30yo — fresh, 2-set win yesterday (~neutral).
Tomic: 4 matches/7d, 9 matches/14d, back_to_back=3, age 33 (≥30 recovers slowly → harden).
EXTREME SPOT: 3rd+ match in consecutive days, huge cumulative load at 33. Yesterday's win was 2-set so no 3-set hangover, but the sustained b2b load on a 33yo IS an extreme-tier disadvantage. Tomic clearly DISADVANTAGED physically for a QF vs a fresh, higher-class opponent.
NARRATIVE / ELO SANITY
Tomic ranked 194 but ML-boosted by recent challenger volume (Lincoln title, weak fields) — ML likely OVERSTATES him; the one hard data point (Khachanov) is real but a single match vs sustained fatigue.
Norrie ELO 77.6% ≈ rank 28 → credible, if anything modestly stale (doesn't fully price Tomic's current form).
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — Norrie pre-narrative exchange edge ~2% (ELO 77.6% vs 75.6% break-even), below 5% bar; ML gives Norrie negative edge. No numerical edge on the favourite before any narrative.
G2 consensus: n/a-to-pass — Tomic side: ML alone splits from market; the live evidence (Khachanov win) is real but thin, no on-surface H2H.
G3 fatal-risk: FAIL (for a Tomic bet) — Tomic's ~5.8% ML value sits directly on top of an extreme-fatigue, age-33 spot vs a fresh higher-class player. Backing the tired side into a run-over risk = fatal. Units cannot buy this back.
VERDICT: PASS.
Favourite (Norrie) has no exchange edge that clears 5% pre-narrative (G1 fail). The only nominal value (Tomic ML ~5.8%) is negated by an extreme fatigue/age spot (G3 fail) and rests on a fatigue-flattered ML built on challenger fields. Model split = uncertainty, not edge. No stakeable market (alt_markets null). Pass.