TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Naef vs J. Garland (Wimbledon on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with C. Naef favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Naef | J. Garland |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.1% | 28.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
73.4% | 26.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.1% | 29.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Naef | hard | 1674 | 103–42 | 145 |
| J. Garland | hard | 1677 | 143–69 | 212 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 13, 2026.
J. Garland leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Garland | 2 - 1 |
| May 19, 2025 | French Open | clay | J. Garland | 2 - 0 |
| March 26, 2024 | W75 Croissy-Beaubourg | hard | C. Naef | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Garland | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| W | H. Tan | 2 - 0 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | A. Urhobo | 2 - 0 | June 12, 2026 |
| L | T. C. Grant | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Naef | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. Montgomery | 2 - 0 | June 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Du Pree | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| L | G. Knutson | 2 - 0 | June 2, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used