TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Moutet vs M. Giron (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with M. Giron favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Moutet | M. Giron |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.4% | 47.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.4% | 47.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.0% | 55.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
M. Giron leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Giron | 3 - 1 |
| March 15, 2026 | Phoenix | hard | M. Giron | 2 - 1 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 3 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 3 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
C. Moutet vs M. Giron — Wimbledon 1/64 (grass) MODELS: ELO A 0.524 | ML A 0.432 | SR A 0.531 | ensemble A 0.524. Market: A 2.10 (impl 0.450) / B 1.72 (impl 0.550). Value pick A, edge +7.4%. Models DO NOT mutually agree — ELO/serve-return lean Moutet, ML leans Giron, market favors Giron. FORM — MOUTET (A), grass 1-3 recent: - L Shelbayh (1411, Weak) 5-7 4-6 [last match, bad loss] - L Davidovich Fokina (1671, Strong) 4-6 3-6 - W Mpetshi Perricard (1731, Strong) 7-6 4-6 7-6 [GRIND, quality win] - L Kyrgios (1799, Strong) 3-6 4-6 Thin grass sample, dropped last out to a sub-1450 opponent. FORM — GIRON (B), grass-tested, deep runs: - L Draper (1818, Strong) 4-6 6-7 [competitive] - L Choinski (1470) 5-7 7-6 6-7 [Eastbourne FINAL, 9d ago] - W Broom (1579) 3-6 7-6 6-2 [GRIND] - L Buse (1460) 3-6 7-5 7-6(8) - L Hijikata (1680) [London FINAL] - W Evans (1661), W Bautista-Agut (1716, Strong) 7-6 7-5 [GRIND v Strong] Reached two grass finals (both lost) — far more match-sharp on the surface. FATIGUE: Moutet 3 matches / 303min / 14d. Giron 6 matches / 751min / 14d, B2B=3. Court-time diff 448min favors Moutet on paper, BUT both last played 2026-06-22 (8 days rest) — acute fatigue largely reset, so edge is muted. NARRATIVE: Giron lost Eastbourne Final 9d ago (lost-final, beyond NOTE window). No title, no venue history for either at Wimbledon. No let-down trigger. VERDICT: PASS. The ELO/SR value pick on Moutet (+7.4%) is contradicted by ML and market, and the qualitative read does not validate it — Moutet's most recent grass result is a loss to a 1411 player, while Giron is the more grass-tested player with wins over Strong opponents. The fatigue tilt is neutralized by 8 days rest. Split models + unvalidated edge = no bet.