TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. McNally vs P. Marcinko (Eastbourne on 2026-06-25) — the market is efficient, with C. McNally favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. McNally | P. Marcinko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.5% | 27.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.7% | 32.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
| P. Marcinko | clay | 1727 | 89–46 | 135 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
C. McNally leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | P. Marcinko | 2 - 1 |
| May 15, 2025 | W75 Zagreb | clay | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 13, 2022 | W60 Trnava 2 | hard | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical consensus identifies a negligible 1.6% edge for Marcinko, but the Kelly criterion correctly suggests zero units, indicating insufficient value to overcome the high margin. Qualitative analysis reveals significant red flags for Marcinko: she is coming off a 3.5-hour marathon match and faces a 2-0 H2H deficit against McNally, who is fresher and described as more experienced on grass. The ML model's outlier prediction (favoring Marcinko) contradicts ELO and market trends, suggesting the calculated edge is likely noise rather than a true opportunity.