TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. McNally vs E. Arango (Eastbourne on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with C. McNally favoured at 1.26.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. McNally | E. Arango |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
81.7% | 18.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.9% | 33.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.6% | 30.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.8% | 27.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
| E. Arango | clay | 1556 | 69–65 | 134 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
C. McNally leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Boisson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | L. Nilsson | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The consensus model identifies a tiny 0.6% edge for McNally, but this is contradicted by the ML model which sees value on Arango, creating model disagreement. McNally has a significant fatigue disadvantage, having played 6 matches in the last 14 days including a match earlier today, compared to Arango who played yesterday. Betting on heavy favorites at 1.26 odds requires a substantial edge to survive the variance, which is absent here. Therefore, the recommendation is to pass on this wager.