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C. Burel vs E. Jacquemot — Prediction & Analysis

Iasi · WTA Iasi - 1/8-finals · July 15, 2026 · 16:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Burel vs E. Jacquemot (Iasi on 2026-07-15) — the market is efficient, with C. Burel favoured at 1.60.

Surface clay Odds C. Burel 1.60 · E. Jacquemot 2.25

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: C. Burel · E. Jacquemot · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ C. Burel vs E. Jacquemot — WTA Iasi, clay, 1/8-finals ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Market: Burel 1.60 (58.4%) | Jacquemot 2.25 (44.4%)
  ELO: 61.9% A | ML: 53.9% A | Model: 61.9% A
  Value flag: A, edge +3.4% — but ML sits BELOW market (53.9% vs 58.4%). Models split; no consensus disagreement with the market.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Burel (8-6 in window, level mixed WTA/ITF):
    07-13 Iasi R32: W vs Lepchenko (Avg 1576) 2-6 7-5 6-3 — comeback 3-setter
    07-09 Contrexeville: L vs Herrero Linana (Weak 1500)
    07-07 Contrexeville: W vs Marcinko (Strong 1739) — GRIND (TB)
    06-17 W75 Blois: L vs Papamichail (Avg 1557)
    06-16 W75 Blois: W vs Otzipka (Weak 1171) — GRIND (TB)
    Pattern: erratic — losses to Weak/Avg (Herrero Linana, Papamichail, Golubic), only 1 Strong scalp (GRIND). Title run was W35-level opposition.
  Jacquemot (2-11 in window):
    07-14 Iasi R32: W vs Amariei (Weak 1435) 6-4 7-6 — GRIND vs weak opponent
    07-07 Contrexeville: L vs Zantedeschi (Avg 1543)
    06-29 Wimbledon: L vs Osaka (Strong 1746)
    06-21 Eastbourne F: L vs Sonmez (Strong 1716)
    06-20 Eastbourne SF: W vs Xu (Avg 1525)
    Pattern: tougher schedule (Sabalenka, Osaka, Krejcikova) but also losing to Avg-tier; needed a TB to beat a 1435 yesterday.

FATIGUE
  Burel: 3 matches / 14d, 9 sets, 382 court-min, last 07-13
  Jacquemot: 2 matches / 14d, 6 sets, 172 court-min, last 07-14
  Court-time diff 210min > 60 → Burel disadvantaged (heavier legs), though Jacquemot played a day later.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: Burel — Nice Final won 31d ago → None. Jacquemot — Eastbourne Final lost 24d ago → None.
  Venue: both 1-0 at Iasi (this event only). No amplifier.
  Title recency: Burel — TITLE: W35 Nice + H (France) 31d ago (clay), but vs Weak-tier field; limited transfer to WTA main draw.

VERDICT: PASS
  ELO backs A (+3.4% vs market) but ML backs the other direction (-4.6%); models cancel out. Qualitative read validates neither side: Burel is erratic with recent losses to sub-1600 players and carries a 210-min court-time deficit; Jacquemot is 2-11 and just grinded past a 1435. Value flag on A is an ELO artifact without qualitative confirmation, and the fatigue lean mildly contradicts it. No alt markets priced. No bet.

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