TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Shapovalov +5.5 (game handicap) at 1.87 in C. Alcaraz vs D. Shapovalov (Tokyo on 2026-10-04). Result: VOID.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Alcaraz | D. Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
91.3% | 8.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
83.6% | 16.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.7% | 37.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.2% | 20.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
83.5% | 16.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2210 | 183–46 | 229 |
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1839 | 111–85 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 8, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4, 2026 | Tokyo | hard | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 0 |
| March 11, 2025 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| June 2, 2023 | ATP French Open | clay | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | Walk Over | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Khachanov | 1 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 0 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Oct. 3, 2026 |
All Oct. 4, 2026 results & picks →