TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Nakashima vs J-L. Struff (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | J-L. Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.5% | 34.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.5% | 45.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.2% | 33.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.8% | 24.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
| J-L. Struff | hard | 1666 | 77–88 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
J-L. Struff leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J-L. Struff | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon 1/32 (grass) — B. Nakashima vs J-L. Struff MODELS: ELO 0.654A | ML 0.545A | model 0.661A | market 0.758A (Nakashima 1.28 / Struff 4.01). Bot flags +9.7% value on Struff (B) off ML+ELO sitting below the line. FORM (Nakashima, grass): RED-HOT. Wimb 1/64 d Pinnington Jones (1650) 6-3 7-6 7-5 (GRIND). London run: d Fucsovics (1729 Strong) 6-3 6-3 DOM, d Buse (1546) 6-2 6-2 DOM, d De Minaur (1898 ELITE) 7-5 6-3 DOM, lost SF to Cerundolo in 3. Beat an Elite and a Strong opponent in straights on grass — genuine, surface-specific quality. FORM (Struff, grass): MEDIOCRE. Wimb 1/64 needed 5 sets to grind past Baez (1463, clay specialist) 6-1 7-6 4-6 2-6 7-5 — nearly upset by a weak grass player. Mallorca: lost 1/8 to Borges 4-6 5-7, scraped Landaluce in 3. Stuttgart: lost 1/8 to Bublik. Big serve plays on grass but current form is shaky. FATIGUE: Nakashima 5m/14d, 481min, b2b2, last 06-30. Struff 3m/14d, 402min, last a draining 5-setter 06-29. Court-time diff ~79min nominally tips Nakashima, but Struff's recent 5-set war offsets it — roughly even, no exploitable edge. NARRATIVE: No let-down (neither won a recent Final). No title recency. Venue: both fresh into Wimbledon. London SF run gives Nakashima clear grass momentum; Struff has none. VERDICT: The model edge on Struff is ML-driven and NOT validated by the qualitative read — live grass form runs strongly the other way (Nakashima dismantled De Minaur/Fucsovics; Struff nearly lost to a 1463 clay-courter). Backing Struff at 4.01 is a model-only contrarian play against the form signal, and Nakashima at 1.28 offers no value. PASS — fade the bot's Struff suggestion.