TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Nakashima vs J. Draper (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | J. Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.1% | 55.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
| J. Draper | hard | 1990 | 154–58 | 212 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
J. Draper leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2025 | London | grass | J. Draper | 2 - 1 |
| June 15, 2024 | ATP Stuttgart | grass | J. Draper | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 4, 2023 | Bergamo Challenger Men | hard | J. Draper | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 11, 2022 | Next Gen Finals - Milan | hard | B. Nakashima | 3 - 1 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 1 - 1 | April 13, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The models identify a slight 4.1% edge for J. Draper, but this directly contradicts the market which prices Nakashima as the favorite. Qualitative data reveals a massive red flag for Draper: he hasn't played a competitive match in 70 days and has a 0-0 grass record this season, raising severe rust and fitness concerns. Conversely, Nakashima is fully match-tough, having just reached the semi-finals at ATP London with a 3-1 grass record over the last week. The model's edge is likely inflated by Draper's outdated hard court results, making this a pass despite the mathematical value.