TENNISEDGE.GG

B. Bonzi vs H. Dellien — Prediction & Analysis

Montreal · ATP Montreal - Final · Aug. 1, 2026 · 17:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Bonzi vs H. Dellien (Montreal on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with B. Bonzi favoured at 1.25.

Surface hard Odds B. Bonzi 1.25 · H. Dellien 3.75

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: B. Bonzi · H. Dellien · head-to-head record · Montreal

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method B. Bonzi H. Dellien
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 87.9% 12.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 75.9% 24.1%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 69.8% 30.2%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 76.7% 23.3%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 75.0% 25.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
B. Bonzi hard1746 163–94257
H. Dellien clay1741 207–112319

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.

Head to head

B. Bonzi leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 1, 2026MontrealhardB. Bonzi2 - 0
May 20, 2024ATP French OpenclayB. Bonzi2 - 1

Recent form

B. Bonzi

L Y. Hanfmann 1 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
W H. Dellien 2 - 0 Aug. 1, 2026
L J. D. Hara Friend 1 - 2 July 30, 2026
W M. Mmoh 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
W B. Bicknell 2 - 1 July 28, 2026

H. Dellien

L B. Bonzi 2 - 0 Aug. 1, 2026
L J. C. Prado Angelo 1 - 0 July 29, 2026
W P. Martinez 0 - 2 July 28, 2026
L L. Djere 0 - 2 July 19, 2026
W M. Ribecai 2 - 1 July 18, 2026

All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══ B. Bonzi (A) vs H. Dellien (B) — Montreal, hard, Final ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO(A) 0.879 | ML(A) 0.759 | blend(A) 0.767
  Market: A 1.25 (impl ~0.80 / devig 0.75), B 3.75 (impl 0.267). value_pick A, edge +1.7% (marginal).
  Own blend (0.767) sits AT/BELOW the 0.80 implied on the favourite -> no value backing A.
  B model prob = 0.233 < 0.267 implied -> no value backing the dog either. Market efficient.

RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
  A Bonzi (30, #101): Vancouver QF L 7-5 6-7 5-7 (Hara Friend 1644, 3-set loss 07-30); Vancouver R16 W 7-5 6-4 (Mmoh 1716); R32 W 3-6 6-3 6-4 (Bicknell); Wimb L (Diallo); Nottingham QF L. Match-sharp on hard (3 at Vancouver this week) but shape STABLE-to-FADING (lost yesterday's 3-setter). Hard-court tour player, legit ELO for surface.
  B Dellien (33, #133): San Marino R16 L (Prado Angelo 1350, clay); San Marino R32 W (Martinez); Kitzbuhel Final L to Djere; all recent results CLAY (Trieste challenger title, Kitzbuhel final). Clay specialist.

PATH / SHAPE / TRANSITION
  Dellien = CLAY specialist transitioning to HARD (all last ~15 matches clay). Depresses his level on this surface -> if anything ELO's 0.879 for Bonzi may UNDERstate on hard.
  Bonzi hard-court player, 3 matches deep at venue = match-sharp.
  ELO/rank: Bonzi ELO 0.879 but ranked 101; Dellien clay-inflated. Divergence noted, not leaned on.

FATIGUE (context only, no extreme spot decides)
  A: 3 matches/7d, played+lost a 3-set match 07-30 (back_to_back 2), age 30. B: 2/7d, last match 07-29, age 33.
  Neither carries a decisive extreme fatigue spot; cumulative-minutes gap = context, not edge.

PRICING
  No betfair_ml (exchange price absent) -> ML would need >=8% edge vs BOOK quote AND book-priced flag, or prefer PASS.
  Favourite A: need ~0.88 to clear 8% at 1.25; only ELO reaches it, blend 0.767 does not -> FAIL.
  Dog B: model 0.233 < 0.267 implied -> negative EV -> FAIL.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric model-vs-market edge >=5% on either side before any narrative; blend sits below the favourite's implied.
  G2 consensus:   PASS — (stake-tier only, does not block).
  G3 fatal-risk:  PASS — (ML scope, does not block).

VERDICT: PASS. Market prices the favourite fairly (blend 0.767 vs implied 0.75-0.80); no exchange liquidity; both sides fail the edge bar. Book-priced small events are the losing segment. No bet.

More from Montreal