TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Bencic vs Xin. Wang (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with B. Bencic favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Bencic | Xin. Wang |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.6% | 31.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.6% | 28.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 25, 2026.
B. Bencic leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | B. Bencic | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 26, 2025 | Others matches | — | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Stojsavljevic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 | May 31, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
B. Bencic (A) vs Xin. Wang (B) - Wimbledon 1/32, grass. MODELS: ELO 53.4% A | ML 68.6% A | model 63.6% A. Market 71.6% A (1.28) / 28.4% B (3.22). Value pick B, edge +8.0%. ELO sees near coin-flip; market prices Bencic's grass edge + Wang fatigue. FORM A (Bencic): grass R1 W 6-2 6-1 vs Stojsavljevic (Weak 1412) = DOM, 48min. Prior clay block (FO 1/8, lost to Svitolina Elite). Grass specialist, fresh. FORM B (Wang): grass R1 W vs Cocciaretto 3 sets (GRIND); before that Bad Homburg SF run (W Fernandez 6-3 6-4, W Zarazua 6-1 6-2 DOM, WO Svitolina, L Osaka). Can play grass but heavy mileage. FATIGUE: A = 1 match/14d, 48min, fresh. B = 6 matches/14d, ~375min court time, back-to-back days, 3-set R1 two days ago. Court-time diff 327min (>60) -> Wang clearly disadvantaged. NARRATIVE: Wang title Rouen (clay) ~79d ago - not relevant on grass. No recent Final let-down. Venue: only this year's Wimbledon R1. VERDICT: Model's contrarian edge on Wang is killed by a stark fatigue differential and Bencic's freshness + grass pedigree. Backing an exhausted underdog at 3.22 not justified; Bencic at 1.28 has no value. PASS.