TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Walton vs J. Boulais (Montreal on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with A. Walton favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Walton | J. Boulais |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
79.1% | 20.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.0% | 61.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.6% | 28.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.4% | 13.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Walton | hard | 1748 | 206–117 | 323 |
| J. Boulais | hard | 1506 | 91–77 | 168 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
A. Walton leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Montreal | hard | A. Walton | 2 - 0 |
| W | J. Boulais | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | B. Bicknell | 1 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Walton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Church | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Monday | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Holmgren | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | Y. Shimizu | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
═══ A. Walton (103) vs J. Boulais (422) — Montreal, hard, FINAL ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO 0.791 | ML 0.799 | Sim 0.716 (all for Walton)
Market: odds_a 1.10 (implied 0.864) / odds_b 7.00 (implied 0.143)
All three models sit BELOW market on Walton → nominal "value" on B (edge ~14% on the blend).
No exchange price: betfair_ml null, alt_markets null (small-event, no liquidity).
RECENT FORM (last 5)
Walton: L Svrcina(1720) 6-7 7-6 6-3 competitive; L Zheng(1785); W Kokkinakis(1833 Elite) OVER-perform;
W Bicknell(1544); L Fearnley(1785) Newport Final. Also Mallorca title, active tour-level grinder.
Shape STABLE, match-sharp, genuine top-105 ATP body of work.
Boulais: L Church(1213!) 6-3 6-3 straight-sets to a sub-1300 opp — bad; L Monday(1636);
L Holmgren(1646) 6-1 6-3 bad; W Shimizu(1560); W Zhang(1642). Playing M25/Challenger,
losing to weak fields. Shape FADING, clearly the inferior player.
FATIGUE (context only, no extreme spot)
Walton 4m/14d, 566min, last 07-29 (3d rest). Boulais 2m/14d, 235min, last 07-28.
Neither carries a 3-set-hangover into today. Ages 27/24, baseline. No fatigue edge either way.
ELO vs RANK
Boulais ranked 422 yet models grant him ~20% — ELO farmed vs weak Challenger/M25 fields.
Discount that. The class gap (rank 103 tour-level vs rank 422 losing to elo-1213 players) says
the models UNDERSTATE Walton; the "value on B" is a contaminated artifact, not real edge.
MARKET CHOICE
alt_markets: none at analysis time
AH: not quoted
ml only, no exchange price.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: PASS-numeric/FAIL-quality — sim gives B ~28% vs 14% implied, but the edge rests on
farmed serve/return stats vs weak fields; strip the contamination and the real edge collapses.
G2 consensus: stake-tier — would be lone/contaminated (0.5-1u cap) at best; not full tier.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ml).
VERDICT — PASS
Backing Walton at 1.10 fails min-odds (need >1.167 at ~0.90 win prob) → auto-pass.
Backing Boulais at 7.00 is the classic ELO-inflated-underdog trap: much weaker player, FADING form
(straight-set loss to a sub-1300 opp), and no exchange liquidity (Pricing #4 losing segment).
The model "value" is refuted by the class/form read. No stakeable edge either side. PASS.