TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Vukic vs D. Altmaier (Montreal on 2026-08-02) — the market is efficient, with A. Vukic favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Vukic | D. Altmaier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.4% | 35.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.5% | 22.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
77.9% | 22.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.8% | 45.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vukic | hard | 1732 | 146–124 | 270 |
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 4, 2026 | Montreal | hard | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 26, 2025 | Tokyo | hard | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 |
| July 3, 2023 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | A. Vukic | 3 - 1 |
| March 16, 2022 | Phoenix | hard | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Barrios Vera | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All Aug. 2, 2026 results & picks →
Vukic (A, 30, #99) vs Altmaier (B, 27, #64) — Montreal, hard, R1 (1/64).
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO 64.4% A | ML 77.5% A | blend 68.0% A | sim 77.9% A
Betfair ML A 1.70 (eff 1.665 -> 60.1%), B 2.30. Pinnacle no-vig A 57.0% (sharpest).
Model-vs-market gap looks like +8% on A, BUT the models are contaminated:
ELO/RANK + INPUT SANITY
Vukic is ELO-FAVOURITE yet ranked #99 vs Altmaier #64 -> classic farmed-rating flag.
Sim inputs confirm it: Vukic RPW 0.423 / SPW 0.608 (win prob 0.779) are built on a
50-match window dominated by Challenger fields (Granby CH, weak-field wins 1372-1813).
A 0.423 return-points-won is elite and is inflated by weak returners/servers he faced.
Altmaier's lower raw stats (SPW .576/RPW .398) were earned vs genuine ATP opposition
(2026 wins over Medvedev 1842, Hurkacz 1819, Shelton 1806, Collignon 1850). ML/sim
reward Vukic's win COUNT and ignore that Altmaier's wins are far higher quality.
Discount the farmed model; sharp Pinnacle (57%) is the trustworthy anchor.
RECENT FORM (last 5)
Vukic: 08-01 W Barrios Vera 1626 (7-6 6-2 GRIND); 07-29 L Musetti 1916 (3-6 7-5 3-6);
07-27 W Svajda 1755 (6-3 6-1 DOM); 07-26 W Bolt 1641 (6-0 6-1 DOM); 07-25 W Dougaz
1606 (6-3 6-3 DOM). SHARPENING on hard but at Challenger/250 level.
Altmaier: 07-22 L Molcan 1819 (clay); 07-21 W Collignon 1850 (clay, DOM 6-3 6-2);
07-15 L Darderi 1916 (clay); 07-14 W Gaston 1654 (clay); 07-01 L Molcan (grass).
Idle 11 days, coming off CLAY -> hard TRANSITION + rust risk.
PATH & SHAPE
Vukic match-sharp (7 matches/14d, all hard) — genuine positive, but market has already
made him favourite despite the ranking gap, i.e. the sharpness IS priced.
Altmaier: rusty (11d off) + clay->hard transition depresses level. Supports Vukic
directionally but already in the price.
FATIGUE (context only)
Vukic 7 matches/14d, 704 min, back_to_back, played YESTERDAY — but a 2-set win
(~neutral, no 3-set hangover haircut). Age 30 -> slow recovery, but load is context,
not an edge (calibration). Cumulative load argues for FADING Vukic, not backing him.
Altmaier fresh but rusty. No extreme spot either way.
MARKET CHOICE
ML A: need win_prob >=65% to clear 5% at Betfair 1.70 (min 1.615 vs 1.70). Contamination-
adjusted true prob ~57-62% (Pinnacle 57%) -> edge ~0-2%. No edge.
ML B (Altmaier 2.30, eff 2.235 -> 44.7%): rusty+transition, ~40-43% to win -> no edge.
Handicap A -1.5: cover rests on the same inflated margin (sim exp margin 3.5 farmed);
Vukic's 8th match / played-yesterday load is a fatal risk to any blowout thesis
-> G3 hard veto for margin. Pass. AH: A -1.5 @ 1.88 (not staked).
Totals U22.5 @ 1.98 (eff 1.931 -> 51.8%): sim under 0.592 = +7% BUT it stems from the
contaminated over-dominance projection (exp games 20.9). A competitive/rusty-Altmaier
match likely runs longer -> illusory edge. Pass.
alt_markets present; contaminated sim not trusted for margins.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — pre-narrative numeric edge (model 68% vs market 60%) collapses
once farmed-Challenger ELO/ML/sim is discounted to sharp Pinnacle 57%; <5% real edge.
G2 consensus: n/a stake-tier (no qualifying bet)
G3 fatal-risk: FAIL (margin only) — cover/under theses self-negate against Vukic's
heavy cumulative load; blowout unlikely on his 8th match.
VERDICT: PASS. Models diverge from market only because Vukic's rating/sim are farmed on
Challenger fields; sharp Pinnacle (57%) agrees the exchange price. No executable edge on
any market clears its bar.