TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Tomljanovic vs M. Bolkvadze (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Tomljanovic favoured at 1.14.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Tomljanovic | M. Bolkvadze |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.4% | 31.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.3% | 30.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.1% | 51.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
82.8% | 17.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tomljanovic | hard | 1767 | 73–69 | 142 |
| M. Bolkvadze | hard | 1555 | 111–84 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
M. Bolkvadze leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Bolkvadze | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Erjavec | 2 - 0 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Tomljanovic | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Vandromme | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | H. Kinoshita | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: A. Tomljanovic vs M. Bolkvadze — Wimbledon (grass), 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO 0.684 | ML 0.693 | model 0.680 (Tomljanovic). Market: A 1.14 (impl 0.828) / B 5.50 (impl 0.172). Devig value pick B, edge +14.9%. FORM — TOMLJANOVIC (last 90d, grass swing): 06-24 L Valentova(1544) 26 75 46 (3-set loss, Avg opp) 06-22 W Cocciaretto(1688,Strong) 62 67 75 GRIND 06-21 W Erjavec(1628) 61 75 DOM — EASTBOURNE TITLE 06-20 W Osorio(1580) 62 64 DOM 06-13 W McNally(1773,Strong) 64 64 DOM 06-12 W Yastremska(1719,Strong) 46 64 75 GRIND 06-10 W Bouzas(1703,Strong) 63 61 DOM Read: dominant grass form, multiple DOM wins over Strong (1700+) opponents + a title. FORM — BOLKVADZE (last 90d): 06-25 W Vandromme(1558) 64 46 63 — WIMBLEDON QUALIFYING TITLE 06-24 W Kinoshita(1638) 63 62 DOM (quali SF) 06-23 W Grabher(1302,Weak) 64 76 (quali QF) 06-10 L Jorge(1613) 36 46 05/early: string of ITF W35/W50 early losses (Adeshina 1386, Appleton 1453). Read: hot in qualifying but exclusively vs sub-1650 / ITF-level fields; no top-tour scalps. FATIGUE: A matches14d=6, court 443min, last 06-24 (6d rest). B matches14d=3, court 221min, last 06-25 (5d rest). Court diff 222min > 60 → A nominally heavier, but 6 days rest neutralizes. Roughly even into R1. NARRATIVE: Tomljanovic title 9d ago (Eastbourne, grass) — outside let-down window, no fade. Strong venue/surface momentum. Bolkvadze title is a QUALIFYING event over weak fields — does not transfer to a tour-level matchup. VERDICT: The math edge on Bolkvadze (+14.9%) is a mirage. Opponent-quality lens: Tomljanovic has live DOM grass wins over 1700+ players plus a title; Bolkvadze's wins are over 1300-1650 qualifiers/ITF. Live form heavily favors the favorite and the underdog price (5.50) is not validated by anything in her body of work. No edge to back B; backing A at 1.14 has no value. PASS.