TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Tomljanovic vs E. Cocciaretto (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with A. Tomljanovic favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Tomljanovic | E. Cocciaretto |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.3% | 41.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.2% | 42.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.4% | 53.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.0% | 46.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.0% | 38.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tomljanovic | hard | 1767 | 73–69 | 142 |
| E. Cocciaretto | clay | 1690 | 94–47 | 141 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
A. Tomljanovic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | A. Tomljanovic | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Bolkvadze | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Erjavec | 2 - 0 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | T. Gibson | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Tauson | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus assigns Tomljanovic a 59.0% win probability, creating a 3.0% mathematical edge on underdog E. Cocciaretto at 2.50 odds. Qualitative analysis strongly supports fading the favorite, as Tomljanovic has played 6 matches and 18 sets over the last 14 days, accumulating significant fatigue, whereas Cocciaretto is well-rested and possesses the grass pedigree to exploit a tired opponent. While Tomljanovic is the likely winner, the market price of 1.53 fails to account for the physical toll of her recent schedule, justifying a value bet on the underdog.