TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Tabilo vs T. A. Tirante (Bastad on 2026-07-17) — the market is efficient, with A. Tabilo favoured at 1.73.
═══ A. Tabilo vs T. A. Tirante — Bastad (clay) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Market: Tabilo 1.73 (implied 54.2%) | Tirante 2.05 (45.8% norm)
ELO 54.3% A | ML 56.4% A | Sim 54.3% A
Value edge: +0.08% on A — noise. Full model-market consensus.
Alt markets: none priced.
RECENT FORM (last 5 shown)
Tabilo:
07-16 Bastad R16 W vs Midon (1665, Strong) 6-4 6(5)-7(7) 6-4 — GRIND
06-30 Wimbledon L vs Majchrzak (1810)
06-23 Mallorca L vs Marozsan (1521, Weak)
06-16 London L vs Hijikata (1709)
06-01 French Open L vs Auger-Aliassime (1841)
→ 0-4 skid before Bastad (grass-heavy); first clay win since FO. Aix title 75d ago.
Tirante:
07-16 Bastad R16 W vs Basilashvili (1678, Strong) in 3
07-14 Bastad R32 W vs Ofner (1724, Strong) — DOM straight sets
06-29 Wimbledon L vs Marozsan (1571)
06-24 Eastbourne L vs Samuel (1557) — GRIND (TB)
06-23 Eastbourne W vs Stewart (1623) — DOM
→ 2-0 at venue; spring clay scalps vs Elite: Paul (1988) DOM, Cobolli (1922) DOM, Norrie (1868).
FATIGUE (14d)
Tabilo: 1 match, 3 sets, ~188min court time, last played 07-16
Tirante: 2 matches, 6 sets, ~279min, last played 07-16
Diff ~91min → slight edge Tabilo, but absolute loads are light. Not decisive.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (Tabilo's Aix Final win 75d ago — stale). Tirante: no recent Final.
Venue: Tirante 2-0 Bastad this week; Tabilo 1-0.
Title recency: TITLE Aix en Provence 75d ago (clay) for Tabilo — historical only.
VERDICT: PASS
ELO and sim sit exactly on the market number; ML is only ~2pts higher — no
meaningful disagreement on any side. Qualitative read (Tirante 2-0 at venue,
Elite clay scalps, Tabilo grindy off an 0-4 skid) mildly favors the dog, which
argues against the only nominal value side (A) and isn't strong enough to make
Tirante at 2.05 a bet against model consensus. Efficient price — no stake.