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A. Tabilo vs L. Midon — Prediction & Analysis

Bastad · ATP Bastad - 1/8-finals · July 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Tabilo vs L. Midon (Bastad on 2026-07-15) — the market is efficient, with A. Tabilo favoured at 1.25.

Surface clay Odds A. Tabilo 1.25 · L. Midon 3.60

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: A. Tabilo · L. Midon · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ A. Tabilo vs L. Midon — ATP Bastad 1/8-finals (clay) ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Market: Tabilo 1.25 (74.2%) | Midon 3.60 (27.8%)
  ELO: 73.1% A (agrees with market)
  ML: 56.2% A (disagrees — sees Tabilo weaker)
  Blend: 65.4% A → nominal 8.8% value on Midon (value_pick B)

RECENT FORM
  Tabilo (last 5):
    06-30 Wimbledon R128 L vs Majchrzak (1810, Strong)
    06-23 Mallorca R16 L vs Marozsan (1521, Avg)
    06-16 London R32 L vs Hijikata (1709, Strong)
    06-01 French Open R16 L vs Auger-Aliassime (1841, Strong)
    05-30 French Open R32 W vs Kouame (1519, Avg) — GRIND (4 sets, TB)
  → 4-match losing streak, no win since May 30, incl. loss to an Avg-tier
    opponent. But grass losses on a weak surface; May clay resume solid
    (Aix title 05-03, Valencia SF, FO R16). 15 days off = rust risk.

  Midon (last 5):
    07-14 Bastad R32 W vs Diaz Acosta (1805, Strong) — GRIND (3 sets)
    07-13 Bastad CH Final W vs Marcondes (1632, Avg) — GRIND (2 TB sets)
    07-12 Bastad SF W vs Rejchtman (1101, Weak) — GRIND (TB)
    07-10 Iasi QF L vs Piros (1776, Strong)
    07-08 Iasi R16 W vs Simakin (1276, Weak)
  → Red hot (title 07-13, backed up vs a Strong opponent 07-14) but
    every recent win a GRIND; competition mostly Challenger-tier.

FATIGUE
  Tabilo: 1 match / 3 sets / ~136 min in 14d, last match 06-30 (15d rest).
  Midon: 8 matches / 24 sets / ~1063 min in 14d, 5 in 7d, 3 back-to-backs,
    played YESTERDAY, playing a 3rd straight day.
  → Massive edge Tabilo (~900+ min court-time diff). Midon disadvantaged.

NARRATIVE
  Midon: TITLE Bastad Challenger 2d ago (clay) → LETDOWN window, partially
    disproven by the 07-14 win but stacked on brutal fatigue.
  Venue: Midon 3-0 at Bastad this fortnight (amplifier only).
  Tabilo: grass-to-clay transition back to best surface, fully rested.

VERDICT: PASS
  ML model disagrees with market (56% vs 74%), but the qualitative read
  does NOT validate the Midon side: extreme fatigue (24 sets/14d, 3rd
  straight day) + post-title letdown against a rested, higher-tier
  opponent returning to his best surface. Tabilo side offers no value
  either — 1.25 needs >80%, models say 65-73%. alt_markets null, ML only.
  No stake.

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