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A. Smith vs Y. Yuan — Prediction & Analysis

Warsaw · Warsaw - 1/16-finals · Aug. 3, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Smith vs Y. Yuan (Warsaw on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with Y. Yuan favoured at 1.18.

Surface hard Odds A. Smith 4.50 · Y. Yuan 1.18

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: A. Smith · Y. Yuan · head-to-head record · Warsaw

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Smith Y. Yuan
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 19.4% 80.6%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 29.8% 70.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 52.1% 47.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 19.4% 80.6%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 20.8% 79.2%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Smith hard1360 37–5592
Y. Yuan hard1620 80–79159

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.

Head to head

Y. Yuan leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 3, 2026WarsawhardY. Yuan2 - 0

Recent form

A. Smith

L Y. Yuan 0 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
W D. Gorska 2 - 0 Aug. 2, 2026
L D. Kasatkina 2 - 1 July 26, 2026
W L. Ma 0 - 2 July 25, 2026
L K. Collins 2 - 0 July 8, 2026

Y. Yuan

W A. Smith 0 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
L N. Bartunkova 2 - 1 July 21, 2026
L A. Falei 2 - 1 July 14, 2026
L J. Vandromme 2 - 1 June 23, 2026
L K. Siniakova 2 - 0 June 15, 2026

All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

=== A. Smith (A) vs Y. Yuan (B) -- Warsaw WTA 125K, hard, R1 (1/16) ===

MODELS (prob for Smith/A)
  ELO 19.4% | ML 29.8% | model 19.4% | Pinnacle no-vig 17.3% (sharp, ~8h old) | Betfair implied ~17.4%
  Reliable cluster: Smith ~17-20% -> Yuan ~81-83% favourite.
  Sim (resimulate) outputs Smith 52% / Yuan 48% -- OPPONENT-QUALITY BIASED, discarded (below).
  Betfair ML: A 6.0 / B 1.16. Book: 4.5 / 1.18.

RECENT FORM (last 5, most recent first)
  Smith (rank 414): WON Warsaw ITF Final 08-02 vs Gorska(1139) 7-6 6-1 [GRIND, weak]; LOST Washington
    Final 07-26 vs Kasatkina(1753) 3set; WON Washington SF vs Ma(1573) close; LOST Newport 07-08
    vs Collins(1500); WON Newport Final 07-05 vs Jara(1500). Match-sharp, plays tight sets, but wins
    built on weak-to-avg fields.
  Yuan (rank 49): LOST 8 STRAIGHT -- Prague 07-21 vs Bartunkova(1693) 3set; Istanbul-Q vs Falei(1500);
    Wimbledon QF; Berlin SF vs Siniakova(1748); Hertogenbosch SF; FO QF; Parma; Rome Final vs
    Waltert(1765). Streak mostly deep-round losses to STRONG players -- not collapse. Rusty (13d off).

PATH / SHAPE
  Smith SHARPENING/match-tough (title yesterday) but vs weak fields; Yuan FADING on paper yet losses are
  to elite opposition in late rounds -> sharp market keeps her ~82% (Pinnacle 82.7%). Yuan rust risk 13d.

FATIGUE
  Smith: 7d 2, 14d 3, court 261min, b2b 1, played 08-02 (2-set WIN yesterday -> ~neutral, no 3-set
    hangover). Age 26 baseline. Cumulative load is context, not an edge.
  Yuan: 0 in 7d, 13d rest -> rusty side, not tired.

SIM VALIDATION (resimulate)
  Sim win-prob 52% (Smith) DIVERGES hard from ELO 19% / Pinnacle 17% / Betfair 17%. Cause: SPW/RPW are
  unweighted vs mismatched fields -- Smith serve fattened vs 1000-1573 ITF returners, Yuan suppressed vs
  1700+ WTA returners. Correcting (shade Smith SPW down / Yuan up) pushes toward Yuan winning MORE
  decisively -> shorter matches (favours UNDER, against sim over lean) and LOWER Smith cover. Sim
  distribution rejected as anchor; no justified single-input correction yields a bettable line.

MARKET CHOICE
  ML Yuan @1.16: comm-adj 1.152 -> implied 86.8%; models 81-83% -> NEGATIVE edge. Pass.
  ML Smith @6.0: comm-adj 5.75 -> implied 17.4%; reliable models 17-20% -> ~0 edge. ML 29.8% and sim 52%
    both contaminated/lone -> not a real edge. Pass.
  Totals O/U 20.0 (o2.0/u1.91): sim over 0.586@19.5 but sim biased toward longer/closer match than
    reality; corrected -> over overstated. No reliable >=5% edge. Pass.
  Handicap Smith +5.5 @1.84 / Yuan -5.5 @2.04: |5.5|>=4.5 HIGH-VARIANCE (needs edge>=10%). Sim cover
    biased in Smith favour; corrected lowers Smith +5.5 to ~break-even (comm-adj implied 55.6%). No 10%
    edge. Yuan -5.5 needs a 6+ blowout from a 13d-rusty player vs a match-sharp grinder -- no thesis. Pass.
  AH: A +5.5 @ 1.84
  alt_markets: present

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL -- only numeric edge (Smith ML/cover/over) rests on sim (opponent-biased) and lone
    ML; ELO+model+Pinnacle+Betfair all agree ~17-20% -> no reliable model-market gap.
  G2 consensus:   STAKE-TIER only -- would be capped/contaminated; moot on a pass.
  G3 fatal-risk:  N/A (no margin bet staked).

VERDICT: PASS. Heavy-favourite 125K where sharp market (Pinnacle/Betfair) and ELO agree Yuan ~82%; the
two dissenting models are both contaminated (lone break-even ML; opponent-quality-biased sim). No side
and no alt market clears its bar. Yuan is projected winner but her price offers no value; Smith's
apparent value is a sim artifact. No edge to stake.

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