TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Smith vs S. Jara (Newport on 2026-07-05) — the market is efficient, with A. Smith favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Smith | S. Jara |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.8% | 26.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.9% | 23.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Smith leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Newport | grass | A. Smith | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Yuan | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Gorska | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | K. Collins | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. Voloshchuk | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Smith | 2 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | C. Bohrer Martins | 1 - 2 | Feb. 18, 2026 |
| L | M. Vogt | 2 - 1 | Dec. 18, 2025 |
| W | F. Maguina Bunikowska | 1 - 2 | Dec. 17, 2025 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used