TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Smith vs D. Gorska (Warsaw on 2026-08-02) — the market is efficient, with A. Smith favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Smith | D. Gorska |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
78.0% | 22.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
85.7% | 14.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
78.0% | 22.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
80.0% | 20.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Smith leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 2, 2026 | Warsaw | hard | A. Smith | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Yuan | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Gorska | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | K. Collins | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. Smith | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | S. Ksandinov | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Paszun | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Podlinska | 2 - 1 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | G. Pedone | 0 - 2 | May 27, 2026 |
All Aug. 2, 2026 results & picks →
=== A. Smith (A) vs D. Gorska (B) -- Warsaw, hard ===
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO: A 78.0% | ML: A 85.7% | model: A 78.0%
Betfair ML: A 1.12 (impl 89.8% comm-adj) | B 7.60 (impl 13.8% comm-adj)
Book: A 1.08 | B 4.33 (value_pick B stale -- exchange prices B far shorter at 7.6)
Backing A: all models (78-86%) sit BELOW the executable 89.8% -> no value on the fav.
Backing B: ELO 22.0% vs market 13.8% = +8.2% edge; but ML 14.3% ~ market (+0.6%). Lone-ELO dog edge.
RECENT FORM (most recent first, top 5)
A. Smith (rk 414, age 26): level-dropper on a hot WTA run.
2026-07-26 Washington WTA Final, LOST v Kasatkina (1753 Elite) 4-6 6-4 6-0 -- took a set off an elite
2026-07-25 Washington SF, WON v L. Ma (1573 Avg) GRIND (TB)
2026-07-08 Newport (grass) 1/16, LOST v Collins (1500)
2026-07-05 Newport (grass) Final, WON v Jara (1500) 6-2 7-5 DOM -- title
2026-06-15 Figueira qual Final, LOST v Ryser (1503) GRIND
D. Gorska (rk 1268, age 21): W15-level, poor form.
2026-07-30 W15 Bielsko Biala 1/8 (clay), LOST v Ksandinov (1500) 5-7 7-5 6-4
2026-07-29 W15 1/16 (clay), WON v Paszun (1500) GRIND (TB)
2026-06-17 W35 Bolszewo 1/16 (clay), LOST v Podlinska (1306)
2026-05-27 W35 Bol2 1/16 (clay), LOST v Pedone (1527) 1-6 1-6
SHAPE / PATH
Smith: STABLE-to-SHARPENING -- reached a WTA Final (competitive 3-setter v elite) + a Newport title. Over-performing her 414 rank.
Gorska: FADING/weak -- losing at the lowest ITF tier (W15), 1-6 1-6 blowout in window. Clay->hard TRANSITION.
Path: Smith off a deep Washington run last week (match-sharp), 7 days rest -- fresh. Gorska last played W15 clay 30 Jul.
FATIGUE (Step 2)
Both: 2 matches/14d, back_to_back 1. Smith 185min, Gorska 259min. No extreme spot; context only. Neither played yesterday -- no 3-set haircut.
NARRATIVE
No first-Final let-down. Gorska clay->hard TRANSITION supports a dog ML directionally but does not overcome a class gap.
ELO/RANKING SANITY
Gorska rk 1268 losing at W15 yet ELO grants 22% -- ELO overrates a very weak-field player. Discount the lone-ELO dog edge; ML (14.3%) aligns with the exchange, the sharper read.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL -- only >5% edge (B +8.2%) is lone-ELO; ML agrees with market, qualitative read says ELO OVERrates the dog. No genuine model-vs-market edge.
G2 consensus: stake-tier only -- no BET to size.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ML) -- class mismatch is the dominant risk to any dog thesis.
MARKET CHOICE
alt_markets: no handicap/totals at analysis time; betfair_ml present. No stakeable margin market.
AH: not quoted
VERDICT: PASS. Backing Smith has negative value (models below the 1.12 exchange). Backing Gorska rests on a lone ELO reading that W15-level form and ML both contradict. No stakeable market.