TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs T. Kostovic (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | T. Kostovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.6% | 30.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
88.7% | 11.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.6% | 25.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
92.6% | 7.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| T. Kostovic | clay | 1583 | 52–32 | 84 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Kubka | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | V. Wolff | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Siskova | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Pastikova | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | K. Supova | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used