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A. Rublev vs S. Baez — Prediction & Analysis

Bastad · · July 17, 2026 · 14:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs S. Baez (Bastad on 2026-07-17) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.65.

Surface clay Odds A. Rublev 1.65 · S. Baez 2.25

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: A. Rublev · S. Baez · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ A. Rublev vs S. Baez — Bastad (clay) ═══

MODELS
  Market:  Rublev 1.65 (57.7% norm) | Baez 2.25 (44.4% raw)
  ELO:     Rublev 68.5%  (agrees with market, stronger)
  ML:      Rublev 40.3%  (disagrees — favors Baez ~60%)
  Value flag: A @ +10.8% edge (ELO-driven only)

RECENT FORM
  Rublev (10-7 last 90d, GRIND profile on clay):
    07-16 Bastad R16      W  Pellegrino (1756, Strong)  7-6 6-7 6-3  GRIND
    06-29 Wimbledon R128  L  Safiullin (1685)           5 sets
    06-24 Boodles exhib   L  Kokkinakis
    06-23 Boodles exhib   W  Shevchenko
    06-16 Halle R32       L  Hurkacz (1789)             straight sets
  Baez (7-0 on last 7 clay matches):
    07-16 Bastad R16      W  De Jong (1787, Strong)     6-4 6-2  DOM
    07-14 Bastad R32      W  Dahlin (1296, Weak)        3 sets   GRIND
    06-29 Wimbledon R128  L  Struff (1669)              5 sets
    06-25 Boodles exhib   W  Shevchenko
    06-24 Boodles exhib   L  Hurkacz
  Notes: Baez won Prostejov Challenger title 40d ago on clay (5-0, DOM over
  Molcan 1814) but the 7-match clay streak is mostly vs Avg/Weak; pre-streak
  he was slumping (L Michelsen, Gaubas, Burruchaga). Rublev's clay wins keep
  needing tiebreaks; ugly losses to Kopriva/Safiullin/Hurkacz.

FATIGUE
  Rublev: 1 match/14d, 3 sets, 199min court time, played 07-16
  Baez:   2 matches/14d, 6 sets, 252min court time, played 07-16
  Diff 53min → slight edge Rublev, not decisive (both on no rest day).

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (Baez title 40d ago — too old). Venue: Baez 2-0 at Bastad
  this week; Rublev 1-0. Title recency: Baez — Prostejov 40d ago (clay).

VERDICT — PASS
  Models split (ELO backs Rublev, ML backs Baez); market sits between them
  and matches my own read (~57-60% Rublev). The flagged 10.8% Rublev edge is
  pure ELO, contradicted by ML AND by the eye test — Rublev is grinding
  tiebreaks vs #130-level clay-courters while Baez is the one posting DOM
  wins. But Baez's streak quality (Challenger-heavy) is too thin to back him
  at 2.25 against a top-tier opponent either. No side clears the bar.
  alt_markets null → no handicap/total available. PASS.

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