TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs R. Safiullin (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rublev | R. Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.3% | 38.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.1% | 47.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.2% | 42.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rublev | hard | 1854 | 163–90 | 253 |
| R. Safiullin | hard | 1715 | 107–81 | 188 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
R. Safiullin leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Safiullin | 3 - 2 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 3 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Fonseca | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 3 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 2 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Kym | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical model identifies value on R. Safiullin (5.8% edge), but this is a classic 'trap' signal where the model overweights recent wins without context. Qualitative analysis reveals Safiullin is in a severe letdown spot after winning a title 4 days ago, coupled with a heavy fatigue load (18 sets in 14 days vs Rublev's 9). The market is 'chasing' Safiullin's form, but Rublev is significantly fresher and faces a mentally hungover opponent. While Rublev is the likely winner, the model shows him as overvalued at 1.40 (Model 62.4% vs Market 68.2%), offering no betting value on the favorite either.