A. Rublev vs L. van Assche — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · · July 24, 2026 · 12:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. van Assche +4.5 (game handicap) at 2.16 in A. Rublev vs L. van Assche (Estoril on 2026-07-24). Result: WON.

Surface clay Odds A. Rublev 1.18 · L. van Assche 4.33

Bot bet

L. van Assche +4.5 (game handicap) @ 2.16 · 1.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: A. Rublev · L. van Assche · head-to-head record · Estoril

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Rublev L. van Assche
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
79.2% 20.8%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
67.8% 32.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
66.9% 33.1%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
79.2% 20.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
78.6% 21.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Rublev clay1926 75–30105
L. van Assche clay1785 110–71181

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.

Head to head

Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 24, 2026EstorilclayL. van Assche2 - 1
July 31, 2024ATP WashingtonhardA. Rublev2 - 1

Recent form

A. Rublev

L D. Merida Aguilar 3 - 1 Sept. 2, 2026
W O. Virtanen 2 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
L N. Borges 0 - 2 Aug. 18, 2026
W P. Carreno-Busta 2 - 0 Aug. 16, 2026
L J. Shang 2 - 1 Aug. 4, 2026

L. van Assche

L D. Shapovalov 3 - 0 Sept. 2, 2026
W C. Norrie 3 - 1 Aug. 30, 2026
L A. Kovacevic 0 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026
W S. Sakellaridis 0 - 2 Aug. 23, 2026
W H. Gaston 0 - 2 Aug. 22, 2026

All July 24, 2026 results & picks →

32 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →