TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs A. Tabilo (Bastad on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.41.
═══ A. Rublev vs A. Tabilo — Bastad SF (clay) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Odds: Rublev 1.41 (impl 68.9%) | Tabilo 3.12 (impl 32.1%)
ELO 58.4% | ML 60.6% | Model 58.7% (Rublev)
Value flag: Tabilo, edge ~10.2% — all three models below market on Rublev
RECENT FORM
Rublev (Bastad 2-0):
07-17 Bastad QF W Baez (1772) 6-1 6-2 DOM vs Strong
07-16 Bastad R16 W Pellegrino (1756) 7(7)-6 6-7(9) 6-3 GRIND vs Strong
06-29 Wimbledon L Safiullin (1685) 5 sets
06-24 Exh L Kokkinakis
06-16 Halle L Hurkacz (1789)
Tabilo (Bastad 2-0, one W/O):
07-17 Bastad QF W Tirante (1500) walkover (0-0)
07-16 Bastad R16 W Midon (1665) 6-4 6-7(7) 6-4 GRIND vs Avg
06-30 Wimbledon L Majchrzak (1810) straight sets
06-23 Mallorca L Marozsan (1521) lost to Weak
06-16 London L Hijikata (1709)
Opponent quality gap: Rublev DOM vs Strong; Tabilo's wins are GRIND vs Avg/Weak,
0 wins vs Strong+ in the sample (losses to Cerundolo, FAA, Kecmanovic tests).
FATIGUE (precomputed)
Rublev: 2 matches/14d, 6 sets, 280min, back-to-back
Tabilo: 2 matches/14d, 5 sets, 296min, back-to-back
→ Roughly equal (16min diff, same match count); Tabilo's W/O saved legs but no edge.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (Rublev Barcelona Final loss ~90d ago; Tabilo Aix title 76d ago — stale).
Venue: both 2-0 Bastad this week — no differential.
TITLE: Aix en Provence 76d ago (clay) for Tabilo — too old to carry.
VERDICT: PASS
Model-market disagreement is real (~10% on Tabilo) but the qualitative read
contradicts it: Rublev just posted a DOM win over a Strong clay-courter and is
the form player; Tabilo's route here is a walkover + a grind over an Avg opponent
after an 0-3 grass swing with a loss to a Weak player. Live form validates the
MARKET, not the models. No price on Rublev either (books richer than models).
alt_markets null — no handicap/total alternative. Skeptic wins: pass.