A. Popyrin vs T. Droguet — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · · Aug. 11, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Droguet (moneyline) at 2.04 in A. Popyrin vs T. Droguet (Cincinnati on 2026-08-11). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds A. Popyrin 1.82 · T. Droguet 1.95

Bot bet

T. Droguet (moneyline) @ 2.04 · 0.75u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: A. Popyrin · T. Droguet · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Popyrin T. Droguet
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
41.0% 59.0%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
40.1% 59.9%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
19.1% 80.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
38.6% 61.4%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
51.7% 48.3%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Popyrin hard1681 88–100188
T. Droguet hard1785 95–63158

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 3, 2026.

Head to head

T. Droguet leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 12, 2026CincinnatihardT. Droguet2 - 0

Recent form

A. Popyrin

L A. Tabilo 1 - 3 Sept. 3, 2026
W G. Dimitrov 1 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
L H. Gaston 0 - 0 Aug. 20, 2026
W F. Maestrelli 0 - 2 Aug. 18, 2026
L T. Droguet 0 - 2 Aug. 12, 2026

T. Droguet

W M. Lajal 2 - 0 Sept. 13, 2026
W N. Budkov Kjaer 2 - 1 Sept. 12, 2026
W D. Glinka 2 - 1 Sept. 11, 2026
W G. Brouwer 2 - 0 Sept. 9, 2026
W M. Chazal 2 - 0 Sept. 7, 2026

All Aug. 11, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →