TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Muller vs T. Paul (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.01.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Muller | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
13.2% | 86.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.1% | 86.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
10.6% | 89.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
4.6% | 95.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Paul leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Paul | 3 - 0 |
| Oct. 24, 2023 | ATP Vienna | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| L | G. Den Ouden | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Napolitano | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used