A. Molcan vs A. Davidovich Fokina — Prediction & Analysis

Umag · ATP Umag - Quarter-finals · July 16, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Molcan (moneyline) at 2.37 in A. Molcan vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Umag on 2026-07-16). Result: WON.

Surface clay Odds A. Molcan 2.37 · A. Davidovich Fokina 1.57

Bot bet

A. Molcan (moneyline) @ 2.37 · 1.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: A. Molcan · A. Davidovich Fokina · head-to-head record · Umag

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Molcan A. Davidovich Fokina
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
53.9% 46.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
47.2% 52.8%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
72.0% 28.0%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
52.5% 47.5%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
39.8% 60.2%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Molcan clay1780 137–71208
A. Davidovich Fokina clay1773 43–3679

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 8, 2026.

Head to head

A. Molcan leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 16, 2026UmagclayA. Molcan2 - 1

Recent form

A. Molcan

L J. Reis Da Silva 0 - 2 Sept. 8, 2026
L B. Bonzi 1 - 3 Sept. 2, 2026
L C. H. Tseng 1 - 1 Aug. 4, 2026
L A. Bublik 2 - 0 July 23, 2026
W D. Altmaier 2 - 1 July 22, 2026

A. Davidovich Fokina

L A. Molcan 2 - 1 July 16, 2026
W M. Trungelliti 0 - 2 July 15, 2026
L F. Auger-Aliassime 3 - 2 July 5, 2026
W M. Fucsovics 3 - 0 July 3, 2026
W F. Marozsan 3 - 0 July 1, 2026

All July 16, 2026 results & picks →

23 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →