TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Michelsen vs F. Cerundolo (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with A. Michelsen favoured at 1.47.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Michelsen | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.3% | 41.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.0% | 60.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.3% | 44.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.3% | 40.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1895 | 148–85 | 233 |
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 21, 2025 | Vienna | hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| June 17, 2025 | Halle | grass | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used