TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Mazzola vs F. Gandolfi (Rome on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with A. Mazzola favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Mazzola | F. Gandolfi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.0% | 41.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.6% | 41.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.0% | 29.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mazzola | clay | 1455 | 83–69 | 152 |
| F. Gandolfi | clay | 1398 | 16–17 | 33 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
A. Mazzola leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Mazzola | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Kotliar | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | D. Spiteri | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | F. Gandolfi | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | J. Niemeier | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | S. Ishii | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Mazzola | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | J. Struplova | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | C. Kuhl | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | D. Yesypchuk | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used